SIMULATING THE RIPPLE EFFECT IN TIME- CRITICAL SUPPLY CHAINS
The ripple effect of disruption on a supply chain means local problems
can become widespread. Studying the impact of this effect and recovery
policies was the focus of research by Dr. Dmitry Ivanov et. al.
The study has two parts. First, it considers the ripple effect in general and
provides a case study from the $4.6 billion Australian dairy industry.
Disruption due to natural events occurs frequently in Australia and many
supply chains for perishable goods are considered time-critical.
Second, the team investigates both proactive and reactive recovery
policies. Proactive policies include the development of plans to mitigate
disruption and the possibility of building resilience into a supply chain.
Reactive recovery policies focus on adjustments to a supply chain during
and after an event.
Experiments using simulation are the only way to efficiently test mitigation
policies. Dynamic simulation modeling can capture the details and
characteristics of each supply chain element and show their complex
interdependencies over time. The researchers were able to study supply
chain disruption and the effectiveness of recovery policies using
The research found that both the study of recovery policies and the study
of time-critical supply chains is not yet well developed. While contributing
to these growing fields of study, the results of the research also provide
new tools for supply chain management. Planners can now estimate the
impact of real and potential disruptions as well as determine effective
stabilization and recovery measures.
The full paper is available for review.